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The report predicts that the decline in China's steel demand will slow down in 2024
Release time:
2023-12-27
The results of my country's steel demand forecast for 2024 recently released by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute show that with the support of future policies, it is expected that the decline in my country's steel demand in 2024 will slow down.
Xiao Bangguo, deputy dean of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, introduced that the demand forecast adopts the steel consumption coefficient method and the downstream industry consumption method, and comprehensively predicts my country's steel demand in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and takes into account the characteristics of different methods and each. The limitations of the two methods are weighted to calculate the results obtained by these two methods. It is estimated that China's steel consumption in 2023 will be 0.89 billion tons, down 3.3 percent from the same period last year; it is predicted that China's steel demand in 2024 will be 0.875 billion tons, down 1.7 percent from the same period last year, and the decline rate will be significantly narrowed.
From the steel consumption coefficient, China's steel consumption is expected to be 0.878 billion tons in 2023 and 0.863 billion tons in 2024.
From the perspective of downstream industry demand, my country's steel consumption is expected to be about 0.899 billion tons in 2023, and my country's steel demand is predicted to be about 0.883 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8.
Chopin said that in 2024, my country will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, focus on expanding domestic demand, and provide effective support for the overall stability of steel demand. It is expected that the demand for steel in machinery, automobiles, energy, shipbuilding, home appliances, containers and other industries will show a growth trend in 2024, while the demand for steel in construction, hardware products, railways, steel and wood furniture, bicycles and motorcycles will decline. It is comprehensively predicted that the demand for steel in China will decline slightly in 2024.
"Although it is comprehensively predicted that China's steel demand will decline slightly in 2023 and 2024, with the support of future policies, it is expected that the decline in China's steel demand will slow down in 2024." Chopin said.
At the same time, the 2023 Chinese steel enterprise competitiveness (and development quality) rating was released. Fan Tiejun, director of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, said that a total of 107 iron and steel enterprises have entered the scope of evaluation, with a total crude steel output of about 0.95 billion tons, accounting for about 93.0 percent of the country's total output. Compared with 109 last year and 90.9 percent of the country's total output, it can be seen that the concentration of enterprises has increased significantly.
Among them, Baowu Group, Angang Group, Hegang Group, Qingshan Holdings and other 18 steel enterprises competitiveness (and development quality) rating of A + (extremely strong), accounting for 16.8 of the total number of steel enterprises evaluated, the total crude steel output accounted for 52.5 of the country's total output. Ningbo Iron and Steel, Jingxi Iron and Steel, Yonggang Group, Baotou Iron and Steel Group and other 39 regional strong steel enterprises competitiveness (and development quality) rating of A (super strong), accounting for 36.4 of the total number of steel enterprises evaluated, the total crude steel output accounted for 27.5 of the country's total output.
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