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Prospect Analysis of Steel Market in 2024
Release time:
2023-12-27
In 2023, the spot price of rebar and hot coil period showed an irregular "N" trend. Among them, steel prices rose in the first quarter, due to the frequent favorable policies of the downstream industry of steel, boosting market confidence, pushing up the cost of furnace materials and steelmaking, in addition, market expectations are good, traders are more willing to hoard goods, rebar and hot coil spot prices gradually higher. In the second quarter, steel prices were under pressure to the downside, due to the weaker-than-expected performance of construction steel terminal demand, supply and demand imbalance, superimposed on the frequent occurrence of overseas risk events, the market risk aversion, steel prices under pressure to weaken. In the fourth quarter of 3., steel prices have been repeated, but the overall focus has shifted upward. Among them, overseas risk events have faded, while the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have weakened, and market risk appetite has picked up. It is just that the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" demand season has once again failed. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the central government announced the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds, and the domestic macro outlook has once again improved.
Looking forward to 2024, rebar and hot coil or reproduce the "N" market trend. First of all, on the supply side, in 2024 in the "double carbon" background, the impact of production control policy on crude steel supply will continue to exist, due to the first half of the favorable policy support and limited production pressure is small, crude steel production will continue to improve year-on-year, the second half of the production limit will gradually strengthen, beware of the stage of the industrial chain negative feedback risk. Secondly, on the demand side, the Central Economic work Conference set the tone to focus on expanding domestic demand in 2024 to form a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of consumption and investment. The central bank will continue to implement loose monetary policy, but it should also beware of the possibility of weak reality under strong expectations. among them, if the favorable policies of industries such as automobiles and home appliances continue to 2024, it will continue to support the strong operation of the plate, while the recovery of the real estate market is slow, demand for construction steel may be weaker than expected. Finally, seasonal patterns remain an important reference factor for our investment and hedging participation,
Winter storage in the first quarter has a supporting effect on steel prices. At the beginning of the second quarter, as inventory reaches its peak and demand is released slowly, steel prices will weaken under pressure in stages. At the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, with the phased removal of inventory, the steel mill's blast furnace is expected to resume production or support the rise of furnace charge, and the steel-making cost will be increased. At the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, entering the peak consumption season or again due to weak reality, and out of the decline; in the middle and late fourth quarter, focus on the impact of environmental protection policies on the supply side and look for investment opportunities in a low inventory environment. We predict that the price of rebar in 2024 will be at 3200-4500 yuan/ton during the operation period, and the hot roll period price will be at 3300-4700 yuan/ton.
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Prospect Analysis of Steel Market in 2024
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